Affordable airfares have proven to be quite difficult to locate due to the pricing algorithms used by most airlines that update their pricing several times during the course of a single day. This study sought to understand the workings of such an algorithm by analyzing the trends in the prices of the flights for a period of 90 days and paying particular attention to last-minute domestic deals in the US. We aimed to determine when exactly one should book tickets to get the lowest possible prices on cheap flights.
The study looked into the trends in the prices of various domestic US flights, the pricing habits of airlines, and how prices varied based on the proximity to the departure date.
Why Do Airlines Adjust Flight Prices So Frequently?
Airlines rely on dynamic pricing systems to adjust the cost of tickets depending on demand, seasonal variation, competitor pricing strategy, available seat capacity, and booking trends. In contrast to normal retail products, flight ticket prices are highly volatile and may change several dozen times in a single day.
Those who search for budget flight tickets now often encounter price discrepancies while making searches in the morning and in the evening. The reason behind this phenomenon lies in the constant analysis of booking data conducted by airline revenue management systems.
Research overview of tracking flight prices
| Metric | Value |
| Tracking period | 90 Days |
| Routes Monitored | 25 |
| Airlines included | 8 Major carriers |
| Price checks conducted | 2250+ |
| Average daily searches | 25 |
| Fare updates recorded | 15000+ |
Best Possible Time to Book Domestic Flights
By far, the most important discovery made in the study was that domestic flights achieved their minimum average prices between 21 and 45 days prior to the flight date.
This was because during this period, there was sufficient unused inventory of flights by the airlines, but demand for flights had not yet hit their maximum levels. Passengers booking their flights during this period were always guaranteed the cheapest fares compared to those booking earlier or later.
When passengers waited for one week to book their domestic flights, their average price increased by 34%.
Average flight price by days before departure
| Booking window | Average Fare change |
| 90+ Days | Baseline |
| 61-89 Days | -3% |
| 46-60 Days | -7% |
| 21-45 Days | -15% |
| 14-20 Days | -5% |
| 7-13 Days | +12% |
| 1-6 Days | +34% |
Last-minute deals are becoming scarce
A lot of people assume that airlines reduce fares in the final days to fill up any available capacity. Even though this used to be the case, airline income management systems make sure that last-minute discounting is rare today.
The airlines understand that last-minute shoppers are generally high-paying corporate clients. Consequently, there is a good chance that fares will rise closer to the date of departure.
Our findings showed that less than 8% of tracked routes provided real last-minute deals.
The best days of the week to find deals on flights
Even if prices can vary at any time during the day, we noticed a number of interesting patterns related to the behavior of consumers and pricing strategies used by airlines.
Flights searched and booked during the weekdays, Tuesday to Thursday, were generally observed to be less expensive than flights searched and booked over the weekends. The high demand among consumers usually raises prices on weekend searches.
Getting information on airfares is going to be easier when you monitor price changes during weekdays and compare prices offered on several sites.
Main Advantages of Flight Offers Services That Can Help You to Save Money
Our research results showed that the first significant advantage was the utilization of the automatic price monitoring service.
People are getting immediate information on ticket price drops. They do not need to check ticket prices several times per day manually, but receive notifications automatically.
Many users choose email as the primary source of communication for receiving alerts.
Conclusion:
After analyzing the cost of flights during 90 days, the information led to one distinct conclusion: the optimal period for purchasing tickets for most US domestic flights is the interval of 21 to 45 days before the date of departure. It may seem quite surprising, but waiting until the last moment will not yield cheaper tickets; on the contrary, in many cases, tickets will be more expensive.
Passengers who will use the appropriate strategy of ticket buying, along with the help of special software and fare alerts, can be sure that they have found the most affordable flights.
FAQs
1. When should I buy tickets for domestic flights to pay the least amount of money?
According to our research within the 90-day analysis time frame, buying tickets 21-45 days prior to the trip gave the highest savings. In this time frame, airlines normally have an abundance of tickets, but the demand for tickets has already reached some level. Early or late purchasing of tickets leads to a higher price on tickets.
2. Does it make sense to try to purchase last-minute tickets nowadays?
Such a strategy has become much less popular in recent years for several reasons. First of all, today, with the new revenue management systems, airlines tend to increase prices closer to the travel date. Only a small part of the analyzed routes offered last-minute deals to customers.
3. Is there any benefit in using flight alerts?
Indeed, there is. Flight alert systems monitor all changes in the price of tickets for different dates and notify you about their drop. It helps you to purchase tickets when the fare becomes cheaper. It is popular among frequent flyers because one does not need to continuously search for a deal.
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